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袁星

领域:节能环保产业 学校:南京信息工程大学职称:教授

全球变化与水循环高分辨率陆面模式发展水文气候集合预测极端事件归因...

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教育背景

2005-2009:中国科学院大气物理研究所,气象学,博士 2000-2004:湖南大学数学与计量经济学院,信息与计算科学,学士

工作经历

2018-present:南京信息工程大学,水文与水资源工程学院,教授,博士生导师,历任副院长、院长 2014-2018:中国科学院大气物理研究所,中科院东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室,研究员,博士生导师,“国家海外引才计划”青年学者,中科院重点实验室主任助理 2011-2014:美国普林斯顿大学,土木环境工程系,Research Scientist 2009-2011:美国伊利诺伊大学香槟分校,水文研究所,Research Scientist 2004-2005:中国科学院大气物理研究所,研究实习员

项目课题经历

1. 科技部国家重点研发计划“全球变化及应对”专项课题,高分辨率区域陆面-生态-水文集成模型研发,2018/05-2023/04,502万,主持; 2. 国家自然科学基金面上项目,气候变化背景下我国南方骤发干旱的演变趋势及驱动机制,2019/01-2022/12,62万,主持; 3. 国家自然科学基金重大研究计划培育项目,三江源区下垫面变化的气候效应及其对极端径流的影响,2016/01-2018/12,80万,主持; 4. 公益性行业(气象)科研专项(重大专项)专题,干旱早期预警及干旱预测技术系统建设,2016/01-2018/12,100万,主持; 5. “国家海外引才计划”青年项目,地球与环境科学,2015,300万,主持。

论文、成果、著作等

SCI论文(*通讯作者) 1. Yuan, X.*, L. Wang, P. Wu, P. Ji, J. Sheffield, and M. Zhang, 2019: Anthropogenic shift towards higher risk of flash drought over China. Nature Communications, 10, 4661, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12692-7 2. Zhu, E., X. Yuan*, and A. Wood, 2019: Benchmark Decadal Forecast Skill for Terrestrial Water Storage Estimated by an Elasticity Framework. Nature Communications, 10, 1237, doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-09245-3 3. Ji, P., X. Yuan*, Y. Jiao, C. Wang, S. Han, and C. Shi, 2019: Anthropogenic contributions to the 2018 extreme flooding over upper Yellow River basin in China. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, accepted. 4. Ji, P., X. Yuan*, and D. Li, 2019: Atmospheric radiative processes accelerate ground surface warming over Tibetan Plateau. Journal of Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0410.1, in press. 5. Jiao, Y., and X. Yuan*, 2019: More Severe Hydrological Drought Events Emerge at Different Warming Levels over the Wudinghe Watershed in northern China. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23, 621–635, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-621-2019 6. Zeng, D., X. Yuan*, and J. K. Roundy, 2019: Effect of Teleconnected Land-atmosphere Coupling on Northeast China Persistent Drought in Spring-Summer of 2017. Journal of Climate, 32(21), 7403-7420, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0175.1 7. Wang, S., X. Yuan*, R. Wu, 2019: Attribution of the persistent spring-summer hot and dry extremes over Northeast China in 2017. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 100(1), S85-S89, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0120.1 8. Zhang, M., and X. Yuan*, 2019: Crucial role of natural processes in detecting human influence on evapotranspiration by multisource data analysis. Journal of Hydrology, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124350. 9. Li, Y.*, X. Yuan*, H. Zhang, R. Wang, C. Wang, X. Meng, Z. Zhang, S. Wang, Y. Yang, B. Han, K. Zhang, X. Wang, H. Zhao, G. Zhou, Q. Zhang, Q. He, N. Guo, W. Hou, C. Zhang, G. Xiao, X. Sun, P. Yue, S. Sha, H. Wang, T. Zhang, J. Wang, and Y. Yao, 2019: Mechanisms and Early Warning of Drought Disasters: Experimental Drought Meteorology Research over China. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 100, 673-687, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0029.1 10. Ji, P., and X. Yuan*, 2020: Underestimation of Warming Trend over Tibetan Plateau during 1998-2013 by Global Land Data Assimilation Systems and Atmospheric Reanalysis. Journal of Meteorological Research, 34(1), 1–13, doi: 10.1007/s13351-020-9100-3 11. Apurv, T., X. Cai, and X. Yuan, 2019: Influence of internal variability and global warming on multidecadal changes in regional drought severity over the continental U.S. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 20, 411–429, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0167.1. 12. Liang, P., Z.-Z. Hu, Y. Liu, X. Yuan, X. Li, and X. Jiang, 2019: Challenges in predicting and simulating summer rainfall in the eastern China. Climate Dynamics, 52, 2217–2233, doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4256-6 13. Yuan, X.*, L. Wang, and E. F. Wood, 2018: Anthropogenic intensification of southern African flash droughts as exemplified by the 2015/16 season. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99, S86-S90, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-17-007.1 14. Yuan, X.*, S. Wang, and Z.-Z. Hu, 2018: Do climate change and El Niño increase likelihood of Yangtze River extreme rainfall? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99, S113-S117, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0089.1 15. Yuan, X.*, and E. Zhu, 2018: A first look at decadal hydrological predictability by land surface ensemble simulations. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 2362-2369, doi:10.1002/2018GL077211 16. Yuan, X.*, Y. Jiao, D. Yang, and H. Lei, 2018: Reconciling the attribution of changes in streamflow extremes from a hydroclimate perspective. Water Resources Research, 54, 3886–3895, doi:10.1029/2018WR022714 17. Yuan, X.*, P. Ji, L. Wang, X.-Z. Liang, K. Yang, A. Ye, Z. Su, and J. Wen, 2018: High-resolution land surface modeling of hydrological changes over the Sanjiangyuan region in the eastern Tibetan Plateau: 1. Model development and evaluation. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 10, 2806–2828, doi:10.1029/2018MS001412. 18. Ji, P., and X. Yuan*, 2018: High-resolution land surface modeling of hydrological changes over the Sanjiangyuan region in the eastern Tibetan Plateau: 2. Impact of climate and land cover change. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 10, 2829–2843, doi:10.1029/2018MS001413. 19. Wang, S., and X. Yuan*, 2018: Extending seasonal predictability of Yangtze River summer floods. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22, 4201-4211, doi:10.5194/hess-22-4201-2018. 20. Zeng, D., and X. Yuan*, 2018: Multi-scale land-atmosphere coupling and its application in assessing subseasonal forecasts over East Asia. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 19, 745-760, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-17-0215.1 21. Yao, M., and X. Yuan*, 2018: Superensemble seasonal forecasting of soil moisture by NMME. International Journal of Climatology, 38, 2565–2574, doi:10.1002/joc.5436 22. Wang, L., and X. Yuan*, 2018: Two types of flash droughts over China and their connections with seasonal droughts. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 35(12), 1478–1490, doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-8047-0. 23. Li, Y., Y. Li, X. Yuan, L. Zhang, and S. Sha, 2018: Evaluation of Model-based Soil Moisture Drought Monitoring over Three Key Regions in China. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 57, 1989-2004, doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0118.1. 24. Yuan, X.*, M. Zhang, L. Wang, and T. Zhou, 2017: Understanding and seasonal forecasting of hydrological drought in the Anthropocene. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21, 5477-5492, doi:10.5194/hess-21-5477-2017 25. Ji, P., X. Yuan*, and X.-Z. Liang, 2017: Do lateral flows matter for the hyperresolution land surface modeling? Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 122, 12077-12092, doi:10.1002/2017JD027366 26. Wang, S., X. Yuan*, and Y. Li, 2017: Does a strong El Niño imply a higher predictability of extreme drought? Scientific Reports,7, 40741; doi: 10.1038/srep40741 27. Hao, Z., X. Yuan, Y. Xia, F. Hao, and V. Singh, 2017: An overview of drought monitoring and prediction systems at regional and global scales. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 98, 1879–1896, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00149.1 28. Lv, M., Z. Ma, X. Yuan, M. Lv, M. Li, and Z. Zheng, 2017: Water budget closure based on GRACE measurements and reconstructed evapotranspiration using GLDAS and water use data for two large densely-populated mid-latitude basins. Journal of Hydrology, 547, 585-599, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol. 2017.02.027 29. Tian, D., E. F. Wood, and X. Yuan, 2017: CFSv2-based sub-seasonal precipitation and temperature forecast skill over the contiguous United States. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,21, 1477–1490, doi:10.5194/hess-21-1477-2017 30. Jiao, Y., H. Lei, D. Yang, M. Huang, D. Liu, and X. Yuan, 2017: Impact of vegetation dynamics on hydrological processes in a semi-arid basin by using a land surface-hydrology coupled model. Journal of Hydrology, 551,116-131, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.05.060 31. Koster, R. D., A. K. Betts, P. A. Dirmeyer, M. Bierkens, K. E. Bennett, S. J. Déry, J. Evans, R. Fu, F. Hernandez, L. R. Leung, X. Liang, M. Masood, H. Savenije, G. Wang, and X. Yuan, 2017: Hydroclimatic Variability and Predictability: A Survey of Recent Research, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,21,3777-3798, doi:10.5194/hess-21-3777-2017 32. Yuan, X.*, F. Ma, L. Wang, Z. Zheng, Z. Ma, A. Ye, and S. Peng, 2016:An experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting system over the Yellow River basin-Part 1: Understanding the role of initial hydrological conditions. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20, 2437–2451, doi:10.5194/hess-20-2437-2016 33. Yuan, X.*, 2016: An experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting system over the Yellow River basin-Part 2: The added value from climate forecast models. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20, 2453–2466, doi:10.5194/hess-20-2453-2016 34. Wang, L., X. Yuan*, Z. Xie, P. Wu, Y. Li, 2016: Increasing flash droughts over China during the recent global warming hiatus. Scientific Reports,6, 30571, doi: 10.1038/srep30571 35. Xie, Z., L. Wang, B. Jia, and X. Yuan, 2016: Measuring and modeling the impact of a severe drought on terrestrial ecosystem CO2 and water fluxes in a subtropical forest. Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences, 121, 2576-2587, doi:10.1002/2016JG003437 36. Tang, Q., X. Zhang, Q. Duan, S. Huang, X. Yuan, H. Cui, Z. Li, and X. Liu, 2016: Hydrological monitoring and seasonal forecasting: progresses and perspectives. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 26(7), 904-920,doi: 10.1007/s11442-016-1306-z 37. Yuan, X.*, J. K. Roundy, E. F. Wood, and J. Sheffield, 2015: Seasonal forecasting of global hydrologic extremes: system development and evaluation over GEWEX basins. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96, 1895-1912, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00003.1 38. Yuan, X.*, Z. Ma, M. Pan, and C. Shi, 2015: Microwave remote sensing of short-term droughts during crop growing seasons. Geophysical Research Letters, 42, 4394-4401, doi:10.1002/2015GL064125 39. Yuan, X.*, E. F. Wood, and Z. Ma, 2015: A review on climate-model-based seasonal hydrologic forecasting: physical understanding and system development. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, 2, 523-536, doi: 10.1002/wat2.1088 40. Ma, F., X. Yuan*, and A. Ye, 2015: Seasonal Drought Predictability and Forecast Skill over China. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 120, 8264-8275, doi:10.1002/2015JD023185 41. Roundy, J. K., X. Yuan, J. Schaake, and E. F. Wood, 2015: A framework for diagnosing seasonal prediction through canonical event analysis. Monthly Weather Review, 143, 2404-2418, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-14-00190.1 42. Yuan, X.*, E. F. Wood, and M. Liang, 2014: Integrating weather and climate prediction: toward seamless hydrologic forecasting. Geophysical Research Letters, 41, 5891–5896, doi:10.1002/2014GL061076 43. Hejazi, M., X. Cai, X. Yuan, X.-Z. Liang, and P. Kumar, 2014: Incorporating reanalysis-based short-term forecasts from a regional climate model in an irrigation scheduling optimization problem. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 140(5), 699-713, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000365 44. Kam, J., J. Sheffield, X. Yuan, and E. F. Wood, 2014: Did a skilful prediction of sea surface temperatures help or hinder forecasting of the 2012 Midwestern US drought? Environmental Research Letters, 9, 034005, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034005 45. Sheffield, J., E. F. Wood, N. Chaney, K. Guan, S. Sadri, X. Yuan, L. Olang, A. Amani, A. Ali, S. Demuth, and L. Ogallo, 2014: A Drought Monitoring and Forecasting System for Sub-Sahara African Water Resources and Food Security. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 95, 861-882, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00124.1 46. Yang, L., F. Tian, Y. Sun, X. Yuan, and H. Hu, 2014: Attribution of hydrologic forecast uncertainty within scalable forecast windows. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 775-786, doi:10.5194/hess-18-775-2014 47. Ye, A., Q. Duan, X. Yuan, E. F. Wood, and J. Schaake, 2014: Hydrologic post-processing of MOPEX streamflow simulations. Journal of Hydrology, 508, 147-156, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.10.055 48. Yuan, X.*, E. F. Wood, J. K. Roundy, and M. Pan, 2013: CFSv2-based seasonal hydroclimatic forecasts over conterminous United States. Journal of Climate, 26, 4828-4847, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00683.1 49. Yuan, X.*, and E. F. Wood, 2013: Multimodel seasonal forecasting of global drought onset. Geophysical Research Letters, 40, 4900-4905, doi:10.1002/grl.50949 50. Yuan, X.*, E. F. Wood, N. W. Chaney, J. Sheffield, J. Kam, M. Liang, and K. Guan, 2013: Probabilistic Seasonal Forecasting of African Drought by Dynamical Models. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 14, 1706-1720, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-13-054.1 51. Kam, J., J. Sheffield, X. Yuan, and E. F. Wood, 2013: The influence of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones on Drought over the Eastern US (1980-2007). Journal of Climate, 26, 3067-3086, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00244.1 52. Pan, M., X. Yuan, and E. F. Wood, 2013: A Probabilistic Framework for Assessing Drought Recovery. Geophysical Research Letters, 40, 3637-3642, doi:10.1002/grl.50728 53. Qin, P., Z. Xie, and X. Yuan, 2013: Incorporating groundwater dynamics and surface/subsurface runoff mechanisms in regional climate modeling over river basins in China. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 30, 983-996, doi:10.1007/s00376-012-2095-7 54. Yuan, X.*, and E. F. Wood, 2012: Downscaling precipitation or bias-correcting streamflow? Some implications for coupled general circulation model (CGCM)-based ensemble seasonal hydrologic forecast. Water Resources Research, 48, W12519, doi:10.1029/2012WR012256 55. Yuan, X.*, X.-Z. Liang, and E.F. Wood, 2012: WRF ensemble downscaling seasonal forecasts of China winter precipitation during 1982-2008. Climate Dynamics, 39, 2041-2058, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1241-8 56. Yuan, X.*, and E. F. Wood, 2012: On the clustering of climate models in ensemble seasonal forecasting. Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L18701, doi:10.1029/2012GL052735 57. Liang, X.-Z., M. Xu, X. Yuan, T. Ling, H.I. Choi, F. Zhang, L. Chen, S. Liu, S. Su, F. Qiao, Y. He, J.X.L. Wang, K.E. Kunkel, W.Gao, E. Joseph, V. Morris, T.-W. Yu, J. Dudhia, and J. Michalakes, 2012: Regional Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 93, 1363-1387, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00180.1 58. Yuan, X.*, E. F. Wood, L. Luo, and M. Pan, 2011: A first look at Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) for hydrological seasonal prediction. Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L13402, doi:10.1029/2011GL047792 59. Yuan, X., and X.-Z. Liang, 2011: Improving cold season precipitation prediction by the nested CWRF-CFS system. Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L02706, doi:10.1029/2010GL046104 60. Yuan, X., and X.-Z. Liang, 2011: Evaluation of a Conjunctive Surface-Subsurface Process Model (CSSP) over the contiguous United States at regional-local scales. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 12, 579-599, doi:10.1175/2010JHM1302.1 61. Di, Z., Z. Xie, X. Yuan, X. Tian, Z. Luo, and Y. Chen, 2011: Prediction of water table depths under soil water-groundwater interaction and stream water conveyance. Science China-Earth Sciences, 54, 420-430, doi:10.1007/s11430-010-4050-8 62. Xie, Z., and X. Yuan, 2010: Prediction of water table under stream-aquifer interactions over an arid region. Hydrological Processes, 24, 160-169, doi:10.1002/hyp.7434 63. Yuan, X., Z. Xie, and M. Liang, 2009: Sensitivity of regionalized transfer function noise models to the input and parameter transfer method. Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques, 54, 639-651, doi:10.1623/hysj.54.3.639 64. Yuan, X., Z. Xie, J. Zheng, X. Tian and Z.-L. Yang, 2008: Effects of water table dynamics on regional climate: A case study over east Asian monsoon area. Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, D21112, doi:10.1029/2008JD010180 65. Yuan, X., Z. Xie, and M. Liang, 2008: Spatiotemporal prediction of shallow water table depths in continental China. Water Resources Research, 44, W04414, doi:10.1029/2006WR005453

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